ChatGPT on the Island of Antikythera

Now there are people compare large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT to the replacement of horse carriages by automobiles, such a metaphor may not be quite appropriate. In the era of automobile invention, human understanding of cars far exceeds that of LLMs. At that time, the theory of heat engines had already been developed for over a hundred years, with several key achievements in classical thermodynamics—such as the Carnot cycle, the first law of thermodynamics, and the second law of thermodynamics—all matured. However, fundamental questions such as how intelligence arises, whether the human brain is superior to Turing machines, and thus whether it can be simulated by Turing machines, remain unknown. At the same time, LLMs currently have not provided us with any answers to these questions.

If one were to find something in history that closely resembles ChatGPT, I believe it would be the Antikythera mechanism.

This mechanical computer from an ancient Greek shipwreck around 100 BC, could astonishingly calculate the movements of the sun and moon with remarkable precision. Its simulation of lunar motion took into account the speed differences between perigee and apogee, closely approximating the results of Kepler's laws. It could also calculate the positions of planets and approximate times of solar and lunar eclipses, demonstrating remarkable mechanical engineering skills. The extent of its ingenuity can be seen in the 3D reconstruction animation in this video.

Two hundred years later, Ptolemy used dozens of epicycles and deferents to fit planetary motions, even accounting for the precession of the Earth's axis. Although historically dismissed as "erroneous, absurd" theories, in terms of mathematical prowess, this technique was quite remarkable: it directly hinted at the Fourier transform, which only emerged in the 19th century. In fact, as long as there are enough cycles, such models can fit periodic smooth curves with arbitrary precision. However, fitting is just fitting, and no matter how astonishing the fit is, it cannot reveal the essence.

From ancient Antikythera to Cambridge, where Newton found his laws, it took another 1800 years.