../
2023-04-08
I have seen people compare ChatGPT and other Large Language Models (LLMs) to the automobile phasing out the horse-drawn carriage; such a metaphor might be inappropriate. In the era when automobiles became widespread, human understanding of cars far exceeded our current understanding of LLMs. By that time, heat engines had been under development for over a century, and the most critical achievements in classical thermodynamics—the Carnot cycle, the First Law of Thermodynamics, and the Second Law of Thermodynamics—were already mature. Yet, we remain completely ignorant regarding fundamental questions such as how intelligence emerges, or whether the human brain is superior to a Turing machine and thus impossible to simulate with one. Meanwhile, LLMs have not yet provided us with any answers to these questions.
If we are to find a historical equivalent to ChatGPT, I believe it would be the Antikythera mechanism.
This mechanical computer, salvaged from an Ancient Greek shipwreck, dates back to around 100 BC. Yet, it could calculate the movements of the sun and moon with astonishing precision. Its simulation of lunar motion accounted for the velocity difference between perigee and apogee, yielding results close to Kepler’s laws. It could also calculate planetary positions and the approximate timing of solar and lunar eclipses, while demonstrating spectacular mechanical engineering techniques. To see just how amazing it is, you can watch this video.
Two hundred years later, Ptolemy used dozens of epicycles and deferents to fit planetary motions, and was even aware of axial precession. Although history books often describe this as a “wrong, laughable, and backward” theory, mathematically speaking, the technique is quite astounding: it points directly to the Fourier Transform, which didn’t appear until the 19th century. In fact, provided there are enough cycles, this model can fit any periodic smooth curve with arbitrary precision. However, fitting is just fitting; no matter how astonishing the fit, it cannot reveal the underlying essence.
From Antikythera in Greece to Cambridge in England, it would take another 1,800 years.
Mistivia - https://mistivia.com